Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Orwell is Busy

I was watching The Cape on Monday, a horrible new television show about a superhero with a ... magical ... cape ... and his municipal blogger buddy, Orwell.

Here is the municipal blogger:

Anyway, the name of the fictitious Palm City blog is Orwell is Watching, and in this episode The Cape was giving its authoress a hard time concerning, and I quote: "Your blog's gone stale, you haven't updated in four days. I don't think Orwell is watching anything!"

So ... I can get away with some predictions, right? Based solely on conventional wisdom, among the 17 people who care about this stuff. A year from today, then, here is what looks to be the most likely roster of City Council officeholders among those districts which have contested races this year:

Harris - Kraus - O'Connor - Dowd - Burgess

Here now, in descending order, are the relative most likely ways that scenario may change, along with the most likely reasons said alterations might occur:

Pallus defeats Harris [Earns the Party endorsement, campaigns well]
Ceoffe defeats Dowd [Fund raising + Lawrenceville United]
Koch defeats Kraus [Locks down the Hilltop, while the Flats vote splits]
Egypt's Military seizes Control [Drop-off in relative likelihood]
Copeland-Mitchell or Prater-Holiday defeats Burgess [either the 12th Ward or self-identifying "Progressives" change mind, back other challenger]
Calfo defeats Dowd [Just runs the table]
Wilson defeats Harris [Similarly, runs it]
Robb defeats Kraus [Lays out some killer Carson St. area public safety plan with real-world buy-in]
Phillips defeats Kraus [Relaunches blog]
Wiseman wins Shields' seat [In November as the Republican, running against "old boys' network", taking advantage of the tail end of G.O.P. ascendancy]
Schuillenberg defeats Harris [Ingenious Xanatos Gambit pays off]
Zurawsky wins Shields' seat [O'Connor this Spring accidentally makes a whole series of seemingly flattering statements relative to the German 3rd Reich]

I feel like Fitzgerald is probably in the pole position by a nose over Flaherty at this juncture, owing to his having a few more vocal allies, and to the fact that no one wants to fiddle with property taxes even though prolonged intransigence will bankrupt the County, its public schools, and its relatively more struggling communities and families. Lamb is among those candidates running for public office unopposed, due to his mythic power, influence, and connections which strike real fear into the marrow of all those who despairingly yearn to cast off his iron yoke of oppression. Finally I'm guessing Wagner probably has some aces in the hole, but who knows.