Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Orwell is Busy

I was watching The Cape on Monday, a horrible new television show about a superhero with a ... magical ... cape ... and his municipal blogger buddy, Orwell.

Here is the municipal blogger:








Anyway, the name of the fictitious Palm City blog is Orwell is Watching, and in this episode The Cape was giving its authoress a hard time concerning, and I quote: "Your blog's gone stale, you haven't updated in four days. I don't think Orwell is watching anything!"

So ... I can get away with some predictions, right? Based solely on conventional wisdom, among the 17 people who care about this stuff. A year from today, then, here is what looks to be the most likely roster of City Council officeholders among those districts which have contested races this year:

Harris - Kraus - O'Connor - Dowd - Burgess

Here now, in descending order, are the relative most likely ways that scenario may change, along with the most likely reasons said alterations might occur:

Pallus defeats Harris [Earns the Party endorsement, campaigns well]
Ceoffe defeats Dowd [Fund raising + Lawrenceville United]
Koch defeats Kraus [Locks down the Hilltop, while the Flats vote splits]
Egypt's Military seizes Control [Drop-off in relative likelihood]
Copeland-Mitchell or Prater-Holiday defeats Burgess [either the 12th Ward or self-identifying "Progressives" change mind, back other challenger]
Calfo defeats Dowd [Just runs the table]
Wilson defeats Harris [Similarly, runs it]
Robb defeats Kraus [Lays out some killer Carson St. area public safety plan with real-world buy-in]
Phillips defeats Kraus [Relaunches blog]
Wiseman wins Shields' seat [In November as the Republican, running against "old boys' network", taking advantage of the tail end of G.O.P. ascendancy]
Schuillenberg defeats Harris [Ingenious Xanatos Gambit pays off]
Zurawsky wins Shields' seat [O'Connor this Spring accidentally makes a whole series of seemingly flattering statements relative to the German 3rd Reich]

I feel like Fitzgerald is probably in the pole position by a nose over Flaherty at this juncture, owing to his having a few more vocal allies, and to the fact that no one wants to fiddle with property taxes even though prolonged intransigence will bankrupt the County, its public schools, and its relatively more struggling communities and families. Lamb is among those candidates running for public office unopposed, due to his mythic power, influence, and connections which strike real fear into the marrow of all those who despairingly yearn to cast off his iron yoke of oppression. Finally I'm guessing Wagner probably has some aces in the hole, but who knows.

43 comments:

  1. I just saw an online poll showing Zurawsky with a big lead. And I cast fewer than 2% of the votes in the poll. So he must be winning.

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  2. would u care to handicap the east end DJ race?

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  3. Anon 1:41 - Wow. Um. My gut tells me more voters from thereabouts are accustomed to seeing Shields' name in voting booths, in the paper and in Shady Ave and Sq Hill magazines. But I do hear splendiferous things about McGough's support. I would sacrifice a digit to witness a debate between those two, but I don't think judicial candidates do that.

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  4. I get the opposite read in the Flagerald race. The controller seems more in control. But niether one of them is setting the world on fire.

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  5. I like that Fitzgerald is like Gandhi, if Gandhi were trying to pick-up Ayn Rand.

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  6. world's ending in 2012, right? let the ginger kid have the leader-person elected-type non-job.

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  7. I think you should see if Orwell needs some character coaching, over drinks.

    I'm looking forward to the south side election (home for me), I think the area can benefit from some debate even if Kraus walks away with the nod.

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  8. There is always the GENERAL election too.

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  9. Heard It Here First ...March 3, 2011 at 10:49 AM

    Dancing With the Stars to be replace with Dancing with the Guns.

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  10. Only Mark would talk about the general election. What world do you live in Mark?

    No Republican or small time party has a shot in November.

    @Burger John: what do you get out of a Jeff Koch debate? lol where has that dude been for the past 4 years?

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  11. County exec race:
    Lazy vs. Crazy.

    I'll let you figure out which one's which on your own.

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  12. I do like Summer Glau as "Orwell" as odd as that "Cape" show may be.

    And like Glau keeps coming back in different roles (Firefly, Terminator, The 4400), it seems like we are recycling our "actors" in the City / County stage.

    new faces enter rarely.

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  13. I live in the USA. -- That is MY WORLD. In the USA there are primary elections and general elections. In some states here, there are even run-offs. Go figure. (or, Gitout!) I'm doing my part to pull Pittsburgh out of its old-time, 1-party funk and into the "real world." Our city would be a lot better if some others would join me and also talk about democracy and the 'opportunities' of November elections.

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  14. There is plenty to pick up in a "Jeff Koch debate:" Find out where the worst pot-holes of D3 are located, for starters.

    I'm interested in learning if Mr. Kraus has an awareness that the oath of office is a pledge to uphold the Constitution -- cause that was never on his radar when he ran for office the first time.

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  15. hmmm...12/13th wards, the last vestiges of the "pull the lever" Dems, except maybe the 5th.I like Burgess...

    Koch Kraus Phillips...WOW...talk about a threesome...Kraus wins this...can the other two raise money $$

    Ceoffe in a dead heat...Bodack shoulda won this last time except for his lack of energy down the stretch....

    Harris...experience wins out

    Zurawski....age wins out

    Any Lawyer beats Shields

    Summer Glau in Sarah Connors Chronicles

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  16. rich10e - You're calling it for Zurawki? WOW. You heard it there first. I'd give his candidacy more of a shot, but that funky "Z" surname furnishes particularly poor optics when juxtaposed with the big O'. And if the political Geiger Counter were going to pick up anything radioactive about O'Connor, I feel like it would have crackled by now.

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  17. Looks like the comet actually knows a thing or two here. Harris is the most likely, and almost surely, to go down. Kraus is probably next in line, followed by Dowd. Dowd will pull it out though by slim margin again. O'Connor wins in East, mainly because many East Enders are actually very upset with Shields and won't want another wild card.

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  18. Anon 2:07
    O'Connor is the "regular" Dem candidate in this race as was Shields when he ran for council. The "indies" progressives will show their clout and elect one of their own not another mainstream Dem. I can see Harris taking a hit, but Kraus? The organizational skill sets of his opponents will decide the race.

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  19. Cute Bram. One correction though. Wiseman pulled out several weeks ago. I will be the proud representative of the GOP in the coming election and believe it or not, it should be an interesting campaign. Stay tuned!

    (Mark, well said!)

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  20. I think Rich10e might be over estimating how many non-mainstream Dems there are in the 5th district. And Josh might be right, so far as "interesting" goes.

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  21. MH..maybe...i'm inclined to believe that the mainstream dems in 14th or 7th wards are more progressive than say in the 6th,8th,or 9th

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  22. Probably, but all of the 5th district isn't in the 14th Ward.

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  23. council incumbents take a licking...dowd,kraus,harris, and burgess lose...shields, another council person gets shellacked...

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  24. Yes, I should probably re-register as a Dem.

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  25. rich10e said...
    council incumbents take a licking...dowd,kraus,harris, and burgess lose...shields, another council person gets shellacked...

    March 6, 2011 6:01 PM



    Who won the endorsements???

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  26. Flaherty only fell short of the Party endorsement by five votes. I'm a little surprised at that.

    So/and I sorta take back what I wrote here. The @mayorluke vote was clearly energized.

    So much winds back, from my perspective, to the pair of 11th hour botches with the parking tax. That's the risk one runs I guess in engaging in a game of chicken and then being the first to blink.

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  27. I wouldn't totally write off Butler for the DJ seat. He has a lot of support in Squirrel Hill. He'll probably end up eating up some of Doug's support, giving the seat to Hugh, but he may surprise everyone.

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  28. Ah, my last name--Zurawsky. Pronounced like it's spelled: Zur-raw-ski. (Well, except for the "y" on the end. Curse that nun who made my Grandpap change it!)

    But really, is Zurawsky any worse than Roethlisberger? And people sometimes tell me that I look like Wayne Gretzky.

    Regardless, thanks very much for the supportive analysis.

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  29. Is the road in front of your house potholed? That's becoming my marker for honesty.

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  30. Butler will certainly siphon off votes from both candidates....in a numbers game turnout in 14 will be the difference...and 14 can put up the digits

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  31. This thread is the only place I've heard that somebody named Butler is running and I've been reading fairly widely on the election.

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  32. http://danbutlerinspires.com/page3/page3.html

    "He has been a judicial law clerk, a prosecutor, a family court hearing oficer and a family court meditator, successfully settling over 1,100 custody cases. Dan Butler served as a judge of the Municipal Court of Pittsburgh, as well as on Pittsburgh’s specialized, Domestic Violence Court."

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  33. Monk, said it first...

    out with City Council bums!

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  34. I met Dan Butler when he was running for CCP and I liked him. I think I voted for him. But he's not in the top tier in this particular contest.

    So, what's this now? We do, or do not, have a capital budget?

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  35. I ran the circuit before endorsements with two candidates.. By the way, Marmo and Chelsea are automatics. I loved what I heard from a ton of people. The lies, lies, lies. Fitzgerald has been telling people that Flaherty is pulling out?? I talked to some of his staff and they said "BS". Also heard that a certain state senator ? was bullying some dem chairs into voting Fitzgerald. Guys, if this is true, that is really sad! Shame on you voiceless dem chairs! Sorry, I must point this out anonymous. Don't want my county pension to be put in jeopardy- few years left.

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  36. I heard the same stuff. Heard Fitzgerald has Charlie Sheen moments during meetings. He's a bully and his campaign manager is known for criminal activity, stealing yard signs and such. Really now, what is that? I also went to endorsement day and Fitzgerald was acting like a gentleman, but you wonder what is under that fake smile. Is he a monster? Rumor does have it that he walked out and turned on a campaign that he was supposed to be helping over a decade ago. A real Benedict Arnold. I don't know if I want to trust this guy with the county. Whack job.

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  37. This is interesting enough chatter, but I've got to ask Who Is the campaign manager and Where Are Your Citations for this alleged criminal activity. For example I think stealing yard signs is gross but I've never heard of anyone getting caught red-handed.

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  38. I've known Fitzgerald for years..never heard of or witnessed anything other than him being a gentleman...no rants no raves...he did resign from the Dan Cohen campaign for Congress for some untruth Cohen was pushing about Cong Coyne...

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  39. I hear his name is Mike Mikus...here's a little bio...

    "The Critz campaign is being run by Mike Mikus, who was campaign manager for Congressman Jason Altmire (D-4) in 2008, and has also run mayoral and gubernatorial races in Pennsylvania and Georgia. A western Pennsylvania native, Mikus was a regional political director at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2004."

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  40. County Employees have seen him very recently and have seen his temper. He is a yeller and gets mean and is an intimidator. He also has been telling lies about the Flaherty issue! I have direct knowledge. I am not a big Flaherty fan so I don't care, but the Fitzgerald stigma is true. We can't talk or we lose our jobs.

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  41. Ha! I knew it. We were just talking about what was happening on the county execs situation. Flaherty has a big lead over Fitzgerald. Who cares who is in as long as it isn't Fitzgerald. Here is more talk. Just talk but county people talk. Fitzgerald is listing people on his endorsements who actually don't endorse him. We got a great call from SEIU bosses. "We are not endorsing Fitzgerald." Ha! I knew he was lying. We just had to find out. The truth is here! Keep watching. Nothing posted from this anonymous is a lie. I can't put my name on it because I will lose my job with the county. I am sickened by Fitzgerald's lies!

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