Monday, May 14, 2007

Predictions and Ruminations

District 3 -- The whole Redd Up / brick throwing imbroglio may not sway the undecideds, but it has certainly whipped up the Kraus base; not a bad thing in the home stretch. It may also have caused some grumbling within the Koch camp, and isolated him from some natural allies. Considering Koch's thin margin over Kraus in a multi-candidate field last time around, you'd have to say Ad - Kraus.

District 7 -- Ironically, the neighborhood really did change under Bodack's stewardship. Dowd has made significant inroads into Lawrenceville, which is Bodack's home base. Dowd has been door knocking like a fiend. There's a reason "pretty boys" are so widely resented -- they tend to get the girls. Ad - Dowd.

District 9
-- The CW once held that the many challengers would split the anti-incumbent vote, leading Carlisle to sail to victory with maybe a third of the vote. Since then, evidence suggests that Carlisle and her challengers have joined in common cause against Burgess -- perhaps enough to shift that favorable dynamic, considering the Burgess camp has managed to maintain its positivity and focus. Ad - Burgess.

Controller -- Squirrel Hill is looking awful black and gold, and not with Steelers paraphernalia. Pokora still enjoys significant support, as does Dawida. But Lamb has the money edge, and the party endorsement, so we see no reason not to say Ad - Lamb.

-- We guess Mullen?

These dynamics can all be countervailed by the vagaries of Election Day, and conditions on the ground. The weather should be party cloudy and warmer, with no precipitation -- expect very high turnout. Look alive.

No comments:

Post a Comment